Submitted by Comunicação DRI on Tue, 06/09/2026 - 20:23 | Editado por Comunicação DRI há 3 days.
Article produced by João Vitor Souza and published on UFOP's official website.
Professor Luccas Assis Attílio, from the Department of Economics and the Graduate Program in Applied Economics in the Federal University of Ouro Preto (UFOP), had his most recent study published in Resources Policy, a leading international scientific journal in the field of natural resource policy. Entitled “How sensitive is nuclear production to critical minerals?”, the article investigates the dependence of nuclear energy production on the availability and price of critical minerals such as uranium, nickel, and copper.
According to the author, the research stems from his work in the field of energy transition, focusing on the role of nuclear energy in this process. He highlights that “unlike other renewable sources (such as solar, wind, and hydropower), nuclear energy does not depend on weather conditions and emits low levels of greenhouse gases, making it a viable alternative in the fight against climate change.” The study was motivated by concerns regarding the supply of critical minerals, especially uranium, which is essential for the operation of nuclear power plants.
The research uses a sample of 38 countries — responsible for 94% of global nuclear production — and applies advanced econometric models, such as the Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) and Granger Causality, to analyze data from November 2000 to December 2023. The results indicate that increases in the prices of these minerals negatively impact global nuclear energy production, revealing spillover effects across countries.
Among the findings, the influence of oil prices on nuclear production in the United States stood out, an effect captured by the model, although not the primary focus of the study. The professor notes that this result reveals a duality in the U.S. energy matrix, characterized by a strong dependence on oil, a trend intensified under the current administration of Donald Trump.
In addition, variance decomposition shows that oil and stock markets also influence nuclear production, with oil being a particularly relevant factor in the United States and Europe. The robustness of the findings was confirmed through different tests that considered variables such as the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, oil price volatility, and changes in data frequency.
Based on the evidence, Luccas emphasizes that public policies aimed at ensuring uranium supply, either through increased production or through trade agreements with major producing countries (such as Australia and African nations) are essential to assure the viability of nuclear energy in the energy transition. As far as Brazil concerns, he notes that, despite the strategic importance of nuclear energy, “the country has a diversified energy matrix, with a strong presence of sources such as hydropower, ethanol, solar, and wind, which may make a significant expansion of nuclear production unnecessary in the short term.”
Regarding the publication in Resources Policy, the professor highlights the visibility and academic recognition provided by the journal, considered one of the leading publications in the field. He notes that its editorial standards contribute to improving his scientific output and advancing research projects carried out in the University.
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Pesquisa publicada em revista internacional analisa impacto de minerais críticos na produção de energia nuclear | Universidade Federal de Ouro Preto - UFOP
